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| #828183 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:01 AM 15.Jan.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 1100 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 Surface observations, scatterometer, and geostationary satellite data indicate that Alex has weakened, and the current intensity estimate is 60 kt. Wind and pressure observations from Terceira along with the scatterometer data indicate that the center is tilted north-northeastward with height, indicative of some south-southwesterly vertical shear. The global models show significant thermal advection developing over the eastern portion of the circulation very soon, and observation from the western Azores show cold air advection. These factors indicate that Alex will likely become an extratropical cyclone later today. Some restrengthening due to baroclinic processes is possible in the short term, but the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to merge with or become absorbed by another extratropical low within 48 hours. Alex continues to accelerate and is now moving about 360/24. A gradual turn to the northwest is expected as the system rotates around a broader cyclonic gyre over the northern Atlantic. The official forecast track is roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance. The forecast points and wind radii are based mostly on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 39.3N 27.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 45.1N 28.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 16/1200Z 52.7N 31.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/0000Z 57.0N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
