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| #8286 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 14.Sep.2004) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004 1500Z TUE SEP 14 2004 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MARTEEN...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS. AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANGUILLA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 63.1W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 15SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 63.1W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 62.7W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 64.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.3N 66.3W...INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.2N 68.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.0N 69.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.2N 71.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.5N 73.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 24.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 63.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART |
