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| #8445 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:58 AM 15.Sep.2004) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004 0900Z WED SEP 15 2004 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABRERA SOUTHWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 65.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 65.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 64.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.1N 66.5W...NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.1N 68.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.0N 69.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.8N 71.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.5N 74.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 24.5N 76.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 27.0N 77.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 65.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB/JARVINEN |
