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| #8483 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 15.Sep.2004) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004 1500Z WED SEP 15 2004 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABREERA SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABRERA TO PUERTO PLATA. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO. AT 11 AM AST...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 65.8W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 65.8W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 65.4W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.3N 66.9W...OVER PUERTO RICO MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.2N 68.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.2N 70.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.1N 71.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.0N 74.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 28.0N 77.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 65.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN |
