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| #8540 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 15.Sep.2004) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004 2100Z WED SEP 15 2004 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...AND ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABRERA SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABRERA TO PUERTO PLATA...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR ST. KITTS AND NEVIS. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 66.5W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 66.5W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 66.2W...OVER LAND FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.8N 67.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.7N 69.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.6N 70.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.6N 72.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 26.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 29.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 66.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN |
