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| #858312 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 29.May.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Tropical Depression Bonnie has been meandering over the Low Country of South Carolina this evening. Satellite and radar data indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms have been shrinking in coverage and are primarily confined to the western side of the circulation over portions of South Carolina, with some outer bands over eastern North Carolina. The circulation of the system has become a little less defined this evening with some evidence of multiple vortices, and the overall appearance of the cyclone is quite ragged. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt, which is a little higher than reports from the nearby surface observations. Bonnie has not moved much since the previous advisory, and the latest initial motion estimate is a south-southeastward drift, or 160/1 kt. The depression should move slowly northeastward or east-northeastward on Monday when a shortwave trough approaches the cyclone. After that time, a slightly faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion is predicted while Bonnie moves along the northwestern side of a subtropical high pressure system. This steering pattern should take the depression, or its remnants, across the coastline of the Carolinas during the next few days and then offshore into the western Atlantic Ocean. The new track forecast has been adjusted a little to the east of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF consensus. Land interaction during the next few days combined with persistent southerly shear, dry air, and cool waters along the forecast track should prevent Bonnie from restrengthening. The NHC intensity forecast calls for a steady state system through the forecast period, but Bonnie is likely to lose its convective organization and become a remnant low in about two days, or perhaps sooner. Another possibility, however, is that the circulation of the system opens into a trough before it becomes a remnant low. The primary concern from Bonnie continues to be locally heavy rainfall. Isolated rainfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches have been reported in portions of eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 32.8N 80.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/1200Z 33.1N 79.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 31/0000Z 33.5N 79.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 31/1200Z 33.9N 78.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 01/0000Z 34.4N 77.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z 35.4N 76.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0000Z 37.0N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0000Z 38.5N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
