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| #858357 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 30.May.2016) TCDAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 Bonnie has been gradually weakening during the past 24 hours. Deep convection associated the depression dissipated around 0300 UTC, and the central pressure has risen several millibars since this time yesterday. Surface observations over land also indicate winds no higher than 15 kt near Bonnie's center of circulation, however, winds to around 25 kt are noted over water in a band well removed to the east. Given the absence of deep convection for about 12 hours, Bonnie no longer meets the criteria to be classified as a tropical cyclone and is being designated as a post-tropical/remnant low at this time. Sporadic convection could re-develop in association with Bonnie during the next few days, especially over land during peak diurnal heating. However, re-development into a tropical cyclone is not anticipated. Global models show the remnant low of Bonnie transitioning into an extratropical cyclone along a frontal zone just after 72 hours. The initial motion is estimated to be 065/02, although visible satellite imagery indicates little motion during the last few hours. The track model guidance shows the post-tropical cyclone generally meandering slowly east-northeastward during the next day or so in a region of weak southwesterly steering flow. A shortwave trough entering the Midwest in 2 to 3 days should cause the post- tropical cyclone to move northeast and then east-northeastward into the western Atlantic with an increase in forward speed. The new NHC track forecast is shifted a bit to the left of the previous one and keeps Bonnie over land during the next 3 days. There continues to be the potential for Bonnie to generate heavy rainfall and some flooding over portions of the Carolinas during the next 2 to 3 days. Future information on Bonnie can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 5 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 33.4N 79.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 31/0000Z 33.7N 79.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 31/1200Z 33.9N 78.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0000Z 34.2N 78.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1200Z 34.8N 77.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1200Z 36.2N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1200Z 37.7N 73.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1200Z 38.8N 69.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Kimberlain |
