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| #858645 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 02.Jun.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016 The last observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft from several hours ago showed that Bonnie had changed little in intensity and remained just below tropical storm strength. Since that time, the cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has not become better organized, and the center appears to be located on the southeast edge of the main area of deep convection. The current intensity is held at 30 kt, and this is in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. There is a short window of opportunity for Bonnie to strengthen a bit as it traverses the Gulf Stream and the vertical shear remains light during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, increasing shear and cooler waters should cause the system to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low. The official intensity forecast is the same as that from the previous advisory. This is close to the model consensus and somewhat below the DSHIPS and LGEM predictions. By 96 hours, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to become absorbed by an extratropical low over the north Atlantic. The initial motion is about 055/5. The track forecast reasoning remains basically unchanged from the previous couple of advisory packages. Bonnie should continue to be steered by the flow on the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies and gradually turn eastward with acceleration over the next few days. The official forecast track is very similar to the previous one and close to a consensus of the dynamical models, which themselves are in good agreement. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 35.7N 74.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 36.0N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 36.4N 70.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 36.4N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 36.2N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z 35.0N 54.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
