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| #858666 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 03.Jun.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 Bonnie's cloud pattern has become slightly better organized, with a cluster of deep convection in the southwestern quadrant of the cyclone expanding in coverage and gaining greater curvature. However, nighttime visible satellite imagery and Doppler radar data from Morehead City, North Carolina, still show Bonnie's low-level center exposed to the northeast of this convective mass. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are the same as those from 0000 UTC, and with the cloud pattern not fundamentally different since that time, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Bonnie is currently passing over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream that peak around 25.5 deg C, and the warmer water and a generally low-shear environment could allow the cyclone to re-attain tropical storm status today. By 24 hours, lower sea surface temperatures and a substantial increase in westerly shear should result in weakening, and Bonnie is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. The new NHC intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one and overall a little below the statistical-dynamical guidance. Bonnie has turned east-northeastward and begun to move a little faster, with an initial motion estimate of 075/07. Global models show Bonnie turning eastward soon and accelerating further as it rides along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies for the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast is slightly to the south of and faster than the previous one, following the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 35.8N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 36.0N 71.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 36.1N 68.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 36.0N 64.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 35.6N 60.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain |
