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| #858685 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 03.Jun.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 Convection associated with Bonnie has decreased this morning as the center moves over sea surface temperatures of less than 25C east of the Gulf Stream. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. While little change in the wind speed is forecast during the next 48 hours, Bonnie should degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours or less due to the affects of the cold water and increasing vertical wind shear. The system is then expected to weaken to a trough by 72 hours. The initial motion is now 080/10. The cyclone should move generally eastward along the southern edge of the westerlies with some increase in forward speed until dissipation. The new forecast track lies near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 35.9N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 36.1N 69.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 36.0N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 35.6N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 35.2N 59.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
