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| #858970 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 05.Jun.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 The cloud pattern of Colin remains not very well organized, and the low-level center is impossible to discern from infrared imagery. The imagery does show a mid-level center of rotation well to the east of where the low-level center was last found. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate the storm around 0600 UTC, and this should be very useful for locating the center. The current intensity is kept at 35 kt based on earlier aircraft observations and a Dvorak data T-number from TAFB. Strong southwesterly shear should limit significant intensification of Colin before it reaches Florida. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest model consensus. Initial motion is an uncertain 010/08. The track forecast reasoning has not changed from the previous advisory. Over the next day or two, Colin should move north-northeastward to northeastward in the flow between a mid-level over the western and northern Gulf of Mexico and a ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic. Later, the cyclone should move within the mid-latitude westerlies over the north Atlantic. The official track forecast is similar to that of the previous advisory and close to the latest GFS output. It is important to emphasize that one should not focus on the exact forecast track of this system. Strong winds, heavy rains and coastal flooding are likely to occur well to the east of the center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 23.6N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 26.0N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 29.1N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 31.8N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 43.3N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0000Z 49.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0000Z 54.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
