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| #859054 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:58 PM 06.Jun.2016) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 100 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 ...BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 86.5W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Englewood * Sebastian Inlet Florida to South Santee River South Carolina Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Colin. Additional warnings or watches may be required for parts of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was estimated near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 86.5 West. Colin is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected by this evening, and a rapid northeastward motion is expected overnight and Tuesday. On this track, the center of Colin is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend area late this afternoon or evening, move across portions of Florida and southeastern Georgia early Tuesday morning, and move near the southeastern coast of the United States later on Tuesday. However, it's important to note that the strongest winds and heaviest rains are well removed from the center. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts in rainbands located well to the east and southeast of the center. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 250 miles (400 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, western to northern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas through Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts possible in a few locations. Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft. Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf are possible along the Atlantic coast from Florida to South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Brief squalls with winds to near tropical storm force will be moving through portions of the Florida Keys this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions reached the west coast of the Florida peninsula this morning, and will continue through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the warning area along the Atlantic coast by early Tuesday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across portions of Florida and far southern Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
