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| #859159 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:01 AM 07.Jun.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 500 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 Surface and aircraft data indicate that the center of Colin has moved off of the coast of Georgia into the Atlantic. Overall, the system does not look very tropical. However, a large area of deep convection has been persisting east and southeast of the center during the night. Aircraft data and ship reports suggest that the maximum winds remain near 45 kt, mainly to the southeast of the center. Colin has accelerated northeastward with the initial motion now 050/27. The cyclone is expected to move rapidly northeastward for the next 24-36 hours due as it is steered by a large deep-layer trough over the eastern United States. After that, the forward speed of the cyclone is likely to slow as it interacts with a couple of other extratropical lows over the north Atlantic. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track, with a northward nudge at 72-120 hours. Baroclinic influences are expected to cause some strengthening today even as Colin loses its tropical characteristics. The cyclone is expected to transition to a storm-force extratropical low in about 36 hours, with gradual weakening thereafter. The forecast intensities and wind radii have been modified based on input from the Ocean Prediction Center. It should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast. In this case, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings on the post-tropical cyclone. The current warnings are expected to remain in effect until it becomes clear that the center of Colin will not get closer to the coast than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 31.6N 80.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 34.1N 75.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 37.8N 67.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/1800Z 42.0N 58.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0600Z 45.2N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0600Z 50.5N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z 54.0N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z 56.0N 28.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven |
