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| #8613 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:59 PM 15.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 54B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN GETTING CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. AT 8 PM CDT...0100Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA COASTLINE. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE EARLY ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER. OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED AT THE SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A 30-STORY BUILDING. AFTER LANDFALL... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 150 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. PEOPLE ARE STRONGLY ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT FROM SHELTER DURING THE CALM CONDITIONS OF THE EYE...AS WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING WHEN THE EYE PASSES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 56 MPH WITH A GUST TO 78 MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE DAUPHIN ISLAND C-MAN STATION...AND A GUST TO 61 MPH WAS REPORTED AT MOBILE. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN. TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. SOME TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REPEATING THE 8 PM CDT POSITION...29.0 N... 88.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH |
