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| #862629 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 20.Jun.2016) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this morning measured an 850-mb maximum flight-level wind of 52 kt north of the center along with an SFMR surface wind of 40 kt. Based on these data and the overall improvement in the satellite presentation, the depression was upgraded to a tropical storm. Danielle becomes the earliest fourth-named storm in the Atlantic basin, surpassing Tropical Storm Debbie of 2012. The initial motion estimate is 280/06 kt. Recon wind data indicate that Danielle made a jog to the northwest, probably due to reformation of the low-level center closer to an earlier burst of strong convection. However, the general east-to-west deep layer steering flow supports a slow but steady motion toward the west or west-northwest for the next 24 hours, resulting in Danielle moving inland along the east coast of Mexico later today or tonight. The official forecast track lies close to the HWRF model. Some modest strengthening before landfall cannot be ruled out, but no rapid or significant strengthening is expected due to Danielle's imminent interaction with land. Rapid weakening of the wind field is forecast after landfall occurs, with dissipation expected by 36 h. Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat associated with Danielle. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over portions of eastern Mexico during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 20.7N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 20.8N 97.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 21/1200Z 20.8N 98.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart |
