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| #862680 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 20.Jun.2016) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 400 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 The initial motion estimate is 285/07 kt using a 12-hour average motion. A 1638 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated that the center of Danielle has maintained a northwestward motion, which was indicated by earlier reconnaissance aircraft fix data. In contrast, satellite animation shows that the larger scale cyclonic circulation has been moving westward. Excluding some internal wobbles, the general forecast track motion should be toward the west or west-northwest for the next 24 hours due to a large low- to mid-level ridge remaining anchored over the southern Plains and southern United States. On the forecast track, which is similar to the HWRF model, the center of Danielle should move inland this evening along the east coast of Mexico near Laguna Tamiahua. No significant strengthening is expected before landfall occurs due to Danielle's interaction with the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico and dry mid-level downslope air being entrained into the southern and eastern portions of the circulation. Rapid weakening of the cyclone is forecast after landfall occurs, with dissipation expected by 36 hours. Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat associated with Danielle. More than 8 inches of rain have already occurred at Pozo Rica de Hidalgo, Mexico (station MMPA). These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over portions of eastern Mexico during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 21.3N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 21.4N 97.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/1800Z 21.4N 98.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart |
