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| #8646 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 15.Sep.2004) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004 0300Z THU SEP 16 2004 AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD TO LA PLATA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM LA PLATA SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA. AT 11 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM WEST OF PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO MONTE CRISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA... AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO. ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 67.3W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 67.3W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 67.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.0N 68.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.0N 70.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.9N 72.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.0N 73.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.6N 75.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 26.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 28.5N 78.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 67.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART |
