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| #8660 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:07 PM 15.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8. JEANNE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN MOVING DUE WEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE PAST 4-5 HOURS...BUT A MORE REPRESENTATIVE 12-HOUR MOTION IS 295 DEGREES. ONCE JEANNE CLEARS THE TERRAIN EFFECTS OF THE WESTERN END OF PUERTO RICO...IT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION...HOWEVER...COULD BRING JEANNE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THURSDAY. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH OF JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH AT 72-96 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE WIDELY ON HOW AND IF THE RIDGE ERODES DUE TO IVAN STALLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE GFS HAS BEEN VERIFYING THE BEST WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THE PAST 48 HOURS...AND IT MAINTAINS MORE RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE AT 120 HOURS. WHETHER IVAN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OR TURNS BACK SOUTHWESTWARD LIKE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...SOME RIDGING SHOULD BE MAINTAINED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY SINCE JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SMALL CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OWING TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND THE SPEED WAS DECREASED AFTER 96 HOURS SIMILAR TO THE GFS MODEL. JEANNE HAS A WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE CIRCULATION AND A WELL-DEFINED EYE HAS EVEN APPEARED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. IF JEANNE WAS NOT INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF PUERTO RICO...IT LIKELY WOULD BE A HURRICANE. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE STRUCTURE IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA...JEANNE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. AFTERWARDS...THOUGH...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 18.5N 67.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 19.0N 68.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 20.0N 70.4W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 20.9N 72.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 22.0N 73.6W 70 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 23.6N 75.3W 75 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 26.0N 77.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 28.5N 78.0W 90 KT |
