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| #8680 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:04 AM 16.Sep.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM AST THU SEP 16 2004 ...JEANNE NEARING HURRICANE INTENSITY...LOCATED IN THE MONA PASSAGE BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM LA PLATA SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM WEST OF PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO MONTE CRISTO AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA... AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE. AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...EAST OF CABO ENGANO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF JEANNE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JEANNE IS STRENGTHENING AND WILL LIKELY BE A HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING. A HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN SUBSIDING ALONG THE COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED MORE THAN A FOOT OF RAIN...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...WITH NAGUABO IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND HAVING RECEIVED MORE THAN 20 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO. MANY RIVERS ON PUERTO RICO ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO. REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...18.6 N...67.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER JARVINEN |
