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| #8687 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 16.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 55B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN ABOUT TO CROSS THE ALABAMA COASTLINE... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. AT 2 AM CDT...0700Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST...VERY NEAR THE ALABAMA COASTLINE. IVAN IS MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE ON THE COAST SHORTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INLAND. OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED AT THE SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A 30-STORY BUILDING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 150 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. PEOPLE ARE STRONGLY ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT FROM SHELTER DURING THE CALM CONDITIONS OF THE EYE...AS WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING WHEN THE EYE PASSES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES. THE PENSACOLA NAVAL AIR STATION RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 98 MPH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE OCCURING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER IS MAKING LANDFALL. THE PENSACOLA TIDE GAGE JUST REPORTED A STORM SURGE OF 6 FEET AND RISING. LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN. TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA... THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND AREA...AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. REPEATING THE 2 AM CDT POSITION...30.2 N... 87.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 943 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA |
