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| #8709 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 16.Sep.2004) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 56 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004 THE EYE OF IVAN CROSSED THE COAST AROUND 0700Z JUST WEST OF GULF SHORES ALABAMA AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY NOW IS 100 KNOTS AND BECAUSE IVAN IS ALREADY INLAND...FURTHER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SINCE IVAN IS SO LARGE AND INTENSE...IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WELL INLAND...UP TO ABOUT 150 MILES ALONG ITS TRACK. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER....IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE BLOCKED BY A DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS IVAN STALLING NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN THAT AREA. OBVIOUSLY THIS COULD BE A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN THE COMING DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 30.9N 87.7W 100 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 32.5N 87.2W 65 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 17/0600Z 34.7N 86.2W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 17/1800Z 36.0N 85.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 18/0600Z 37.5N 83.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 19/0600Z 37.5N 83.0W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 20/0600Z 36.5N 83.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING |
