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| #871471 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 02.Aug.2016) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 ...TROPICAL STORM EARL EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE HONDURAS BAY ISLANDS ON ITS WAY TO BELIZE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 81.5W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the Cayman Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. * Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 81.5 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On this track, the core of Earl is expected to pass just north of the Honduras Bay Islands Wednesday afternoon and then be very near the Belize coast early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Earl could be near hurricane strength as it approaches Belize and the Yucatan peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the warning area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions could begin in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane watch area Wednesday night or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
