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| #871486 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 02.Aug.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 Dropsonde data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Earl several hours ago indicated that the central pressure had fallen to 996 mb or even lower. Therefore the intensity was increased to 50 kt. Some higher surface wind speeds were reported from the aircraft's SFMR instrument, but these are believed to have been rain-inflated. The storm is gradually becoming better organized, with some developing banding features seen on satellite images. With low shear and SSTs approaching 30 C along the projected track, additional strengthening is likely and the NHC forecast calls for Earl to become a hurricane prior to landfall. This is in close agreement with the latest SHIPS guidance and only slightly above the model consensus. Weakening will occur after the cyclone makes landfall over Yucatan, and the amount of restrengthening in 2-3 days is highly dependent on how far Earl moves into the southern Bay of Campeche. Based on aircraft and satellite center fixes, the initial motion is estimated to be 280/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory package. A large and nearly stationary mid-tropospheric high pressure system centered over the southern Great Plains should prevent the tropical cyclone from moving significantly northward. The official forecast track is close to the model consensus for the first 48 hours and is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF tracks thereafter, with the former model's track to the north of the latter one. This is fairly similar to the previous NHC forecast. The new intensity forecast has necessitated the issuance of a hurricane warning for the coast of Belize and a portion of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 16.4N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 16.7N 84.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 17.1N 87.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 17.8N 89.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0000Z 18.4N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0000Z 19.0N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/0000Z 19.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
