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| #871491 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:53 AM 03.Aug.2016) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 200 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 ...CENTER OF EARL REFORMS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 83.1W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... *Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands of Honduras. * North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 83.1 West. Satellite data indicates that the center of Earl has reformed to the south of the previous advisory position. The storm is expected to resume a motion toward the west near 14 mph (23 km/h) during the next few hours, and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is subsequently expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands Wednesday afternoon, and then be very near the Belize coast early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Earl is likely to become a hurricane before it makes landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of Honduras this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico tonight or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
