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| #871495 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 03.Aug.2016) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 500 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 ...EARL RESUMES A WESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE BAY ISLANDS AND BELIZE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 83.7W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... *Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands of Honduras. * North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch or Hurricane Warning may be required for the Bay Islands of Honduras later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 83.7 West. Earl is now moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon, and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Earl is likely to become a hurricane before it makes landfall. Weakening is expected after the center of Earl moves inland. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Earl. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico tonight or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the Honduras Bay Islands, Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
