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| #871497 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 03.Aug.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 500 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 Microwave imagery since 01Z indicates that Earl has formed a mid-level eye, and ASCAT data near 02Z and 03Z suggests that the circulation center has reformed to the south of the previous forecast track underneath the eye feature. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 55 kt, and that will be the initial intensity. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Earl. The latest satellite imagery suggests that the track excursion caused by the reformation is over, and that Earl is resuming a westward motion of 280/12. A large subtropical ridge centered over the southern United States should steer Earl generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with the cyclone moving near the Bay Islands of Honduras in 12-18 hours, near or over Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in about 24 hours, and over southeastern Mexico and possibly the Bay of Campeche thereafter. The new forecast track is similar to, but south of, the previous track based mainly on the initial position, and it lies a little to the south of the various consensus models. Earl is expected to remain in a light to moderate vertical wind shear environment over very warm sea surface temperatures until landfall. This combination should allow continued strengthening, and the forecast intensity at landfall has been increased slightly from the previous advisory based on the SHIPS and LGEM models. Weakening will occur after landfall as the cyclone passes over southeastern Mexico. The new forecast track has Earl spending less time over the Bay of Campeche than the previous track, so the new intensity forecast shows less re-intensification than the previous forecast. A hurricane watch or warning could be required for the Bay Islands of Honduras later today due to the new forecast track being closer to the islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 16.1N 83.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 16.5N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 17.0N 87.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 17.5N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0600Z 18.1N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/0600Z 19.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
