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| #871501 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:40 AM 03.Aug.2016) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 800 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 ...EARL ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 84.4W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Bay Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. * Bay Islands, Honduras. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border. * North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 84.4 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon, and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Earl is likely to become a hurricane later today. Weakening is expected after the center of Earl moves inland. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating Earl. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure recently estimated by a NOAA Hurricane Hurricane aircraft was 989 mb (29.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the Bay Islands of Honduras later today and in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico tonight or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the Honduras Bay Islands, Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
