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| #871507 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 03.Aug.2016) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 ...EARL NOT A HURRICANE YET BUT EXPECTED TO BE ONE VERY SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 84.8W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. * Bay Islands, Honduras. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border. * North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 84.8 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon, and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is currently investigating Earl and will determine if the cyclone has reached hurricane intensity. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 hours or so, and Earl is expected to be a little stronger by the time it reaches Belize. Weakening is expected after the center of Earl moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are probably already occuring along the north coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the Bay Islands of Honduras later today and in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico tonight or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on the Bay Island of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
