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| #871569 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 04.Aug.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 Earl has continued to spin down as it moves farther inland over Guatemala. The coverage of cold convective tops has decreased and is limited to an area southeast of the center and a rain band about 140 n mi northeast of the center. Assuming a steady weakening, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. Earl is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression tonight and then could become a remnant low at any time in the next couple of days if the deep convection dissipates. The low-level circulation of Earl or its remnants should dissipate by 72 hours over the high terrain of central Mexico. The initial motion estimate is now a bit north of due west, 280/09. The weakening tropical cyclone should continue moving westward to west-northwestward for the next couple of days to the south of a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico and southern United States. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and shows the center moving near the coast of the extreme southern Bay of Campeche in about 24 hours before moving back inland. This track is close to the latest multi-model consensus. Earl is expected to produce very heavy rains over a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico. In addition, global models continue to show a much larger-scale cyclonic gyre over southern Mexico during the next few days. This weather pattern will likely lead to torrential rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.6N 90.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 05/0600Z 17.8N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/1800Z 18.3N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 06/0600Z 18.6N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 06/1800Z 19.0N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
