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| #8716 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:16 AM 16.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 295/8. JEANNE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN MOVING DUE WEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT A MORE REPRESENTATIVE 24-HOUR MOTION IS 295 DEGREES. THIS MOTION...COULD BRING JEANNE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE JEANNE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HOURS BUT AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS WHICH HAS IMPORTANT RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE LONGER FORECAST PERIODS. THE GFDL...NOGAPS...UKMET AND GUNS END UP NEAR THE SOUTHEAST US COASTLINE IN 120 HOURS. THE GFS TRACK MOVES A LOT SLOWER AND ALLOWS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE FROM THE NORTH TO BLOCK THE SYSTEM AND EVENTUALLY MOVE IT WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. JEANNE HAS A WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE CIRCULATION...AS SEEN BY THE SAN JUAN RADAR...AND A WELL-DEFINED EYE IS VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LATEST RECON REPORTED A 989 MB PRESSURE AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED A 63 KT SURFACE WIND IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. OBVIOUSLY...IT IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY BUT IS ABOUT TO INTERACT WITH THE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THEREFORE...I AM GOING TO KEEP IT AT 60 KTS DURING THIS INTERACTION AND MAKE IT A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES AWAY FROM LAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS CALL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT EVEN WITH THE MODERATE SHEAR FORECAST FOR THE SYSTEM IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN IN THE LONGER RANGE AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 18.8N 68.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 19.4N 69.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 20.4N 70.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 21.2N 72.6W 70 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 22.3N 74.2W 75 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 24.4N 77.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 27.0N 78.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 30.0N 79.0W 85 KT |
