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| #871610 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 PM 05.Aug.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Earl this afternoon found a maximum 850-mb-flight-level wind of 59 kt and a peak SFMR wind of 49 kt in the eastern semicircle. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt. Additional aircraft SFMR wind data and recent ASCAT surface wind data also indicate that the 34-kt wind radii have increased outward considerably in the northern semicircle, which has required a northward expansion of the tropical storm warning area along the east coast of Mexico. Earl is moving westward or 275/07 kt. A general westward motion is forecast to continue until landfall occurs in about 12 hours or so. After that time, a motion toward the west or west-southwest is expected as Earl's center interacts with the high terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. There has not been any significant change in the track guidance, so the new official forecast track is close to the previous one and the TVCN consensus model. Little change in intensity is anticipated before landfall occurs later tonight. However, the intensity forecasts at 12 and 24 hours had to be increased based on Earl's stronger initial intensity. Due to the large 34-kt wind radii, it is possible that Earl could still be a tropical storm when it is located inland at 24 hours. The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains that could cause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico. The Mexican Weather Service (SMN) has relayed several reports of rainfall totals already exceeding 5-7 inches (125-180 mm) as of 8 am EDT/1200 UTC this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 18.8N 95.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 18.8N 96.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/1800Z 18.8N 96.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart |
