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| #872652 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 21.Aug.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2016 Deep convection continues to pulsate over the northern and eastern portions of Fiona's circulation. However, there is very little banding evident and the cloud tops are being advected quickly eastward due to strong upper-level westerly winds over the cyclone. This morning's ASCAT data that arrived just after the release of the previous advisory indicated peak winds of 35 kt, which was in line with the the earlier intensity estimate. Since there has been little change in organization today, the initial wind speed will remain 35 kt for this advisory. Strong westerly shear is forecast to persist during the next day or so. This, combined with dry mid-level air, should result in weakening, and Fiona is expected to weaken to a tropical depression during the next 24 hours, and become a remnant low in a couple of days. If Fiona or its remnants survive the next few days, conditions could become somewhat conducive for regeneration or restrengthening later in the forecast period. The latest runs of GFS and UKMET models continue to maintain a weak low through the 5-day forecast period, whereas the ECMWF shows dissipation in 2 to 3 days. The NHC forecast continues to maintain continuity, and indicates dissipation by day 5. Fiona continues to move quickly west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. The cyclone will be nearing the western portion of the ridge in a couple of days, which is expected to cause Fiona to slow down. After 72 hours, Fiona, or its remnants, should turn northwestward around the western portion of the ridge. Due to model differences in the strength and depth of Fiona after 48 hours, the spread in the track guidance is quite large beyond 3 days. The updated NHC track is near the multi- model consensus, which is closer to the GFS and GFS ensemble mean solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 23.4N 54.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 23.9N 57.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 24.7N 59.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 25.4N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 26.3N 63.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 28.4N 66.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z 30.5N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
