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| #872822 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 23.Aug.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 Gaston's cloud pattern has a figure-nine appearance, with an apparent dry slot over the southwest quadrant, and lacks a well-defined CDO at this time. The intensity is held at 55 kt in agreement with subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The system has fairly well-defined upper-level outflow and is expected to remain in a low-shear environment for the next day or so. Therefore, the cyclone is likely to intensify into a hurricane in 12 to 24 hours. In about 36 hours, however, Gaston should encounter increasing southwesterly shear associated with an upper-tropospheric trough near 50-55W. This should at least temporarily halt the intensification process, and probably cause a little weakening. The global models indicate that Gaston will pass by the trough in 72 hours, and reintensification should commence around that time. The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance models through 72 hours, and close to the model consensus thereafter. The motion continues toward the west-northwest, or 290/15 kt. Gaston should gradually turn toward the northwest in response to a break in the subtropical ridge near 60W. The official track forecast, which is very similar to the previous one, follows the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 14.7N 37.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.8N 39.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 17.5N 41.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 19.5N 44.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 22.0N 46.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 26.5N 51.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 29.5N 54.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 31.5N 55.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
