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| #873192 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 28.Aug.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 The low-level center of the depression is now exposed, with the deep convection diminishing and displaced to the northwest of the center due to about 15 to 20 kt of southeasterly shear. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that the intensity remains 30 kt based on the highest believable SFMR winds and peak flight-level winds of 32 kt. Given the current satellite presentation and an environment that is only expected to be marginally conducive for intensification, only modest strengthening is shown in the official forecast, with the depression expected to become a tropical storm in the next day or two. After that time the shear should increase as the system accelerates northeastward, and the global models show the cyclone being absorbed by a front in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus through 48 hours and a little below it at 72 hours. The initial motion estimate is 280/08. While the synoptic reasoning has not changed, the sheared state of the cyclone could lead to some erratic motion if it remains a shallow system. Assuming deep convection returns, the cyclone is expected to gradually recurve during the next 48 to 72 hours, with a slow northwestward motion expected in 24 to 48 hours, bringing the center just offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Given the uncertainty in the intensity forecast and the timing of the approach to the coast, a tropical storm watch is not being issued at this time, but one may be required later tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 31.8N 70.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 32.2N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 33.0N 73.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 33.7N 74.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 34.3N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 36.8N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
