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| #873244 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 29.Aug.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 There has been little change in the structure of the depression since the last advisory, as it is comprised of a swirl of low-level clouds accompanied by minimal shower activity. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 30 kt, so that again is the initial intensity for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the cyclone. The initial motion now is 300/9. For the next 36-48 hours, the depression is expected to move generally northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge near the North Carolina coast. After that time, a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving through the northeastern United States is forecast to erode the ridge and cause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and no significant changes have been made to the forecast track through 48 hours. After that time, the guidance shows a more eastward motion, and the forecast has been nudged to the right of the previous forecast. The dynamical models still forecast the shear to decrease during the next 48 hours and for the depression to move into a more moist environment. Based on this, the intensity guidance is showing modest strengthening as the system approaches the coast of North Carolina. The intensity forecast also shows some strengthening, but it is on the low side of the guidance envelope due to uncertainty about whether the environment will become as favorable as the models are suggesting, and about whether the cyclone will be able to maintain organized convection. After recurvature, the cyclone is forecast to merge with a cold front and dissipate after 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 32.6N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 33.2N 74.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 33.8N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 34.4N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 35.4N 74.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 38.0N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
