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| #873246 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 AM 29.Aug.2016) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST MON AUG 29 2016 Gaston remains a well-organized hurricane. However, the satellite appearance is slightly less impressive than 6 hours ago, with the eye becoming less distinct and the deep convection eroding in the northwestern quadrant. While the various satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the last advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt based on the degraded appearance. The hurricane is currently drifting northward. A slow motion is likely to continue for the next 12 hours or so as Gaston is caught between two segments of the subtropical ridge. After that time, a mid-latitude trough moving southeastward from eastern Canada is expected to weaken the ridge northwest of Gaston, allowing the cyclone to move generally east-northeastward along the southern edge of the westerlies. The model guidance remains tightly packed through 72 hours, and little change was made to the previous forecast for that time. After 72 hours, the guidance envelope has shifted a little to the north, and the forecast track was likewise nudged to stay near the middle of the guidance envelope. Gaston is expected to remain is a light shear/warm water environment for the first 24 hours. During this time, the intensity forecast calls for slight weakening due to dry air entrainment and the possibility that the slow-moving hurricane will upwell cold water. After 24 hours, Gaston is likely to move over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into increasing shear, which should cause a gradual weakening. The new forecast intensity is an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 30.8N 55.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 31.1N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 31.8N 54.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 32.5N 52.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 33.5N 50.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 36.5N 44.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 38.0N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 38.5N 30.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
