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| #873266 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 29.Aug.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 ...TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.6N 84.3W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 84.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast today, followed by a slow northwestward motion on Tuesday. A turn toward the north is expected Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be passing north of the north coast of western Cuba today, and moving farther into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over Cuba, with isolated amounts of 12 inches possible through Wednesday. These rains could cause flash floods and mud slides. Total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys through Wednesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches could occur over the Keys and coastal areas of southern Florida. This rainfall may cause localized flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
