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| #873291 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 29.Aug.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 Satellite and radar images suggest that the depression is becoming better organized. Convection has formed in the northwestern quadrant, with some banding features in the northern semicircle of the cyclone. Aircraft data, however, show that the pressure has stayed the same as 6 hours ago and the winds have not increased. Thus the initial wind speed remains 30 kt. This burst of convection should eventually lead to some intensification as environmental factors (less shear and more moisture) are forecast to become a little more favorable. Most of the guidance are in good agreement on this scenario on gradual intensification, and the latest forecast is close to the previous one and the model consensus. The depression is still moving northwestward at about 6 kt. There has been no change to the synoptic reasoning from the last advisory cycle. The cyclone should slow down and turn northward tomorrow as it reaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge near the North Carolina coast. In about 36 hours, a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving through the northeastern United States is forecast to erode the ridge and cause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The latest NHC prediction is very close to the previous one, between the model consensus and the GFS model. The cyclone should dissipate or be absorbed within a large extratropical cyclone in about 4 days. Due to the close pass of the cyclone to the Outer Banks, a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet, including Pamlico Sound. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 33.6N 74.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 34.0N 74.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 34.6N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 35.4N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 36.7N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 40.5N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
