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| #873294 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 PM 29.Aug.2016) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 The tropical cyclone's cloud pattern has not become better organized this afternoon, with the low-level center partially exposed just to the north of a ragged-looking area of deep convection. Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft support keeping the intensity at 30 kt at this time. Given the system's currently disorganized appearance, it does not seem likely that there will be much strengthening in the short term. Since the cyclone will be moving over very waters and in an environment of moderate westerly shear, however, gradual intensification is expected during the next couple of days. When the system nears the Florida Gulf coast, increasing upper-level winds should limit strengthening. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. Based on fixes from the NOAA aircraft, the motion is a slow 290/4 kt. There is little change to the expected steering flow evolution. In 2-3 days, a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to begin digging over the southeastern United States. This feature should cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the right while it moves over the eastern Gulf, and to accelerate northeastward across northern Florida. The official track forecast is essentially a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS predictions. Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast as early as tomorrow morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 24.0N 84.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 24.6N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 25.5N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 26.8N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 29.3N 83.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 32.5N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 35.0N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
