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| #873318 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 29.Aug.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 The increase in convective organization that occurred earlier today has not persisted, and the convection associated with Tropical Depression Eight is currently minimal and disorganized. The initial intensity will remain 30 kt, pending the arrival of the next Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0900 UTC. The depression should be in a moderate westerly vertical shear environment for the next 24 hours or so, but some modest strengthening is possible if convection can persist near the center. After 24 hours, some strengthening is also possible due to baroclinic influences as the cyclone begin to interact with a frontal zone. The new intensity forecast is the same as the previous forecast, and it is in best overall agreement with the LGEM model. It should be noted that the system could dissipate before 72 hours as forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/4. The depression should continue a slow northwestward to northward motion toward a break in the subtropical ridge for the next 24 hours or so. After that, it should recurve northeastward into the westerlies in advance of an approaching baroclinic trough. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track and lies near the center of the track guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 33.8N 74.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 34.2N 74.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 34.9N 74.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 37.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 41.5N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
