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| #873319 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 29.Aug.2016) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST MON AUG 29 2016 The satellite presentation of Gaston has not changed much during the last several hours. The eye is ragged-looking in infrared satellite images and recent microwave data indicate that there are some signs of a double eyewall structure. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt for this advisory, in agreement with the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Gaston will likely change little in strength during the next couple of days while it remains in generally conducive environmental conditions. However, fluctuations in strength are possible if the cyclone continues to undergo an eyewall replacement. Beyond a couple of days, steady weakening is anticipated when the hurricane moves over cooler waters and into an environment of increasing shear and drier air. The NHC intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one. Gaston has turned northeastward and is moving a bit faster, with the initial motion estimated to be 045/5 kt. A trough currently seen in water vapor images near Atlantic Canada is expected to approach Gaston during the next 12 to 24 hours, and that should cause the hurricane to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. This should result in Gaston turning east-northeastward on Tuesday with a steady increase in forward speed during the next few days. The model guidance has shifted a little to the north this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 31.6N 54.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 32.1N 53.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 32.8N 51.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 34.0N 49.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 35.7N 45.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 39.0N 36.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 40.0N 29.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 41.0N 24.8W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
