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| #873348 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:04 AM 30.Aug.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Convection has again increased in association with Tropical Depression Eight, with the data from the Morehead City, North Carolina, WSR-88D radar showing weak convective banding in the northern semicircle. However, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft up to this writing show flight-level winds of less than 30 kt and a central pressure near 1010 mb. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, and this might be generous. The depression should be in a moderate westerly vertical shear environment for the next 24 hours or so, but some modest strengthening is possible if the current convection can persist near the center. After 24 hours, some strengthening is also possible due to baroclinic influences as the cyclone begins to interact with a frontal zone. The new intensity forecast is the same as the previous forecast, and it is in best overall agreement with the LGEM model. One change to the intensity forecast is to indicate that the system will become an extratropical low at about 72 hours before the cyclone dissipates within the frontal zone. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/5. The depression should start a slow northward motion toward a break in the subtropical ridge later today. After that, it should recurve northeastward into the westerlies in advance of an approaching mid- to upper-level trough and an associated surface cold front. The new forecast track is nudged a little to the west of the previous track during the first 24 hours based on the initial position. After that time, it is similar to the previous track and lies near the center of the track guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 33.9N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 34.4N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 35.3N 74.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 36.5N 72.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 38.4N 69.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 43.0N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
