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| #873435 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 30.Aug.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 ...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 87.8W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County line A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the United States east coast from northern Florida through the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 87.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow drift toward the north-northwest or north is expected tonight and early Wednesday morning. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast to begin by Wednesday afternoon or evening. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone will approach the northwest Florida coast in the watch area on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Wednesday, and be near hurricane strength by the time landfall occurs on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of the Hurricane Watch area by Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the Tropical Storm Watch area by Thursday afternoon. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation within the next 48 hours along the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these areas should be prepared to take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions from local officials. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 2 feet The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. This prototype graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over western Cuba through Wednesday, with maximum storm total amounts up to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible over much of the Florida peninsula through Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall may cause flooding and flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
