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| #873462 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 31.Aug.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 The low-level center is difficult to find, but given the strong westerly shear and continuity, it is assumed that it is located to the west of a large area of deep convection devoid of banding features. Dvorak numbers have not changed, and the initial intensity remains at 30 kt. Most of the guidance shows a significant increase in the shear, but at the same time forecasts a slight increase in intensity. The NHC forecast follows the guidance and the previous forecast showing a slight increase in the winds before the cyclone becomes extratropical in 48 hours. The depression is moving slowly toward the northeast at 4 kt, and is already embedded within the southwesterly flow ahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough. This pattern favors a continuation of the northeast track away from the U.S coast with a significant increase in forward speed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 34.8N 74.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 35.7N 72.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 37.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 40.0N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 42.5N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
