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| #873486 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 31.Aug.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 The depression looks a little better organized this morning, with a large band on the eastern side of the circulation. However, satellite classifications still support keeping the system as a 30-kt tropical depression for now. The cyclone has about 36 hours to intensify over warm water with moderate shear before the environment becomes less conducive. The latest NHC intensity forecast blends the previous one with the new consensus guidance, which results in a slightly higher forecast. The global models suggest the system will become extratropical in about 48 hours, and be absorbed within a larger frontal zone in 3 or 4 days. The latest satellite fixes indicate that the depression has finally started to move faster toward the northeast. The cyclone should continue to accelerate to the northeast within the southwesterly flow ahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough. This pattern favors a continuation of the northeast track away from the U.S coast with a significant increase in forward speed. The guidance is well clustered, and the new NHC track prediction is basically an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 35.5N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 36.6N 71.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 38.8N 66.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 41.0N 60.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 43.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/1200Z 46.0N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
