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| #873490 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 31.Aug.2016) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST WED AUG 31 2016 The satellite appearance of Gaston has degraded somewhat during the past few hours, with a slightly cooler eye noted. A blend of the latest Dvorak estimates suggest an initial wind speed of 100 kt for this advisory. Only a slow weakening is anticipated over the next couple of days while the hurricane moves over gradually cooling waters in moderate shear conditions. Almost all of the guidance show Gaston near hurricane strength in a couple of days as it approaches the Azores. The latest NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, and best fits the model consensus. Gaston has begun to move faster toward the east-northeast, now at about 13 kt. The hurricane should accelerate in that general direction over the next couple of days as it moves within the mid-latitude westerlies. Most of the models have this system in the vicinity of the Azores in about 2 days, and the official forecast will continue to show this solution. A hurricane or tropical storm watch will likely be issued for the central or western Azores this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 34.0N 48.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 35.2N 46.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 36.9N 41.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 38.0N 36.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 38.8N 32.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 40.0N 24.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 43.0N 18.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
