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| #873502 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:50 PM 31.Aug.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 100 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 88.0W ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to the Walton/Bay County line A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the United States east coast from Georgia through the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 88.0 West. Hermine appears to be drifting northward near 2 mph (4 km/h). A north-northeastward motion is expected later today, and a turn toward the northeast with increasing forward speed is expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will approach the northwest Florida coast in the warning area on Thursday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Hermine could be near hurricane strength by the time landfall occurs. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Thursday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of the hurricane watch area beginning Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by early Friday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 to 48 hours along the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 feet Ochlockonee River to Chassahowitzka...3 to 5 feet Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet. Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 2 feet The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. This prototype graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over western Cuba through today, with maximum storm total amounts up to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible over portions of central and northern Florida through Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas are expected to receive storm total rainfall of 4 to 7 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday morning. These rains may cause flooding and flash flooding. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight into Thursday morning mainly across central Florida. A few tornadoes are possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night over north Florida and southeast Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
