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| #873517 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 31.Aug.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 This depression has been a challenging cyclone. After the earlier apparent improvement in the cloud pattern, recent satellite images indicate the system has actually become less organized. While there is a broken band in the eastern semicircle, the depression looks elongated, with a less well-defined center. The initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt on this advisory, which is backed up by ASCAT data of 20 to 25 kt. I'm beginning to think that the long-forecast intensification is not going to occur with this depression. Other than persistence, this idea is supported by the higher shear values in the recent SHIPS and global model guidance. While I'm not ready to totally abandon any strengthening, the new NHC forecast is reduced 5 to 10 kt from the previous one and is below the model consensus. The cyclone should become extratropical within 2 days, and be absorbed within a larger frontal zone in 3 days. An alternative, but realistic, scenario, is that the cyclone becomes a remnant low tomorrow due to marginal environmental conditions causing a lack of organized deep convection. The cyclone is moving northeastward at about 14 kt. It should continue to accelerate to the northeast within the southwesterly flow ahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough. No significant change to the previous forecast was made. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 36.3N 71.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 37.7N 69.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 39.9N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 42.0N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 02/1800Z 44.0N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
