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| #873620 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 01.Sep.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1000 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016 ...HERMINE HEADING FOR THE NORTH FLORIDA GULF COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 86.0W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward for the Atlantic coast to Surf City North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Surf City to Oregon Inlet North Carolina, including Pamlico Sound. The Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been discontinued west of the Walton/Bay County line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River to Mexico Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River to Suwannee River * West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Suwannee River * West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line * Marineland to Surf City A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Oregon Inlet, including Pamlico Sound Interests elsewhere along the United States mid-Atlantic and northeast coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 86.0 West. Hermine is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will be near the Florida coast in the hurricane warning area tonight or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated, and Hermine is expected to be a hurricane by the time landfall occurs. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area beginning tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area along the Atlantic coast on Friday, and spread northward through Friday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Friday night and Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation within the next 12 to 24 hours along the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River...4 to 7 feet Ochlockonee River to Keaton Beach...5 to 8 feet Keaton Beach to Chassahowitzka...4 to 7 feet Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet Florida-Georgia line to Cape Fear...1 to 3 feet The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. This prototype graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida and southern Georgia through Friday, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. On Friday and Saturday, Hermine is expected to produce totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of eastern Georgia, South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina through Saturday. These rains may cause life-threatening flash flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon into Friday morning over north Florida and southeast Georgia. The tornado risk will continue across the eastern Carolinas from Friday morning into Friday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
