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| #873799 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 02.Sep.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016 ...HERMINE MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AS HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 82.0W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM WSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward from Duck, North Carolina, to south of Fenwick Island, Delaware, including the Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward, and the Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward. The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward from Sandy Hook, New Jersey, to west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island and New York City. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Gulf coast of Florida and for the U.S. East coast south of Nassau Sound, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Nassau Sound to south of Fenwick Island * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward * Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Fenwick Island to west of Watch Hill * Southern Delaware Bay Interests elsewhere along the United States northeast coast should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was inland over southeastern Georgia near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 82.0 West. Hermine is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours with a gradual reduction in forward speed expected on Saturday. On the forecast track the center of Hermine will move across coastal South Carolina later today, move over coastal North Carolina tonight, and move offshore of the North Carolina coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Saturday morning. Strengthening is forecast once the center of Hermine moves offshore Saturday afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), mainly to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 41008, located about 50 miles southeast of Savannah, Georgia, recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust of 58 mph (94 km/h). Marsh Island, Georgia, recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust of 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue near the center of Hermine this afternoon and will spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast today through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at most coastal locations between the North Carolina/Virginia border and Bridgeport, Connecticut. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... NC/VA border to Bridgeport, Connecticut...2 to 4 feet RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over the southeastern United States and portions of the mid-Atlantic from southern and eastern Georgia into South Carolina, eastern North Carolina, southeast Virginia, and the lower Eastern Shore of Virginia and Maryland. These rains may cause life-threatening floods and flash floods. Inflow bands south of Hermine are expected to bring an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across portions of central and northern Florida through today. Heavy rainfall could reach the coastal areas of Delaware and New Jersey beginning Saturday night. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across coastal portions of North and South Carolina today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
